Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Propels Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge

Just two months ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.